Victorian Skeptics

Roger Francey

R J Francey, 2009

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Trends in global atmospheric CO2 since 1990 do not reflect trends in emission estimates; this is not required under the Kyoto protocol and has escaped detailed scrutiny. Recent global carbon budget models accomodate this by overestimating uncertainty in the atmospheric trends. Careful selection of data to avoid measurement and sampling bias, and a statistical description of the influence of short-term (ENSO and volcanic) influence on CO2 growth, greatly reduces uncertainty and suggest that much-publicised recent acceleration of global emissions is likely an artefact of underestimation of 1990s emissions. Whatever the biogeochemical explanation, mean atmospheric CO2 growth since 2000 has slowed.

Dr Francey's talk challenges and offers an alternate interpretation of changes in the 'natural CO2 sinks' presented by both papers.